Market analysis

The worldwide sales of cardiovascular disease (CVD) drugs are currently about $76 billion annually (where the cholesterol-lowering agents (Statins) collectively stand for nearly half of the sales). A majority of today's CVD therapies are prescribed to indirectly reduce risk for coronary artery disease (CAD), myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke (e.g., cholesterol-lowering, anti-hypertensive and diabetes drugs). There are currently no drugs acting directly against CAD in the arterial wall. Despite this, CVD drug sales have increased steadily over the last decades and are believed to continue to grow at an annual rate of 10-20%.

The major reasons for this growth are:

The global pharmaceutical market in 2010 exceeded $825 billion and is expected to grow at 4 - 7% CAGR through 2015. Global cardiovascular drugs segment accounted for $116 billion in 2010 and is market leaders both in terms of value and volume. The cardiovascular market may be segmented into numerous subcategories, including antihypertensives, antidyslipidemics, antithrombotics, cardiac therapies and other cardiovascular agents. The antihypertensive drugs are the leading segment with a market share of around 50% of the total cardiovascular market. 

The cardiovascular drugs market is expected to have high volatility during 2011-2015 due to patent expiry, including Pfizer's Lipitor, GlaxoSmithKline's Avandia and Johnson & Johnson Company Levofloxacin, as well as lack of novel therapies being introduced to the market. This trend significantly increases the likelihood of the post-clinical trials commercial viability of the current Project as several pharmaceutical market leaders will be aggressively looking for new prospective product candidates to re-establish and strengthen their weakened IP and product portfolios. The estimations of similar drug market clearly demonstrate that even in the most conservative scenarios result in substantial financial profits for all the partners and investors of CGN. 

As translation medicine evolves, preventive care is predicted to generate a marked increase in drug sales worldwide and a new market for preventive diagnostic. This will happen since a large fraction of individuals who today are considered “healthy” (and therefore not receiving drug therapies), will be prescribed drugs under a preventive health care regime. However, in the longer perspective preventive care is believed to reduce the overall cost for health care in most societies despite increased costs for drug sales and diagnostics because other therapies than drugs can gradually be cut down. As preventive care is being adopted, the need for some types of reactive care like surgery and long-term care of severely ill patients are believed to decline. Particularly, income losses from permanently sick patients, a consequence of reactive care rendering huge costs for societies across the globe, is believed to decline. For example, the number of people who suffer severe MIs and as a consequence are incapable of continue their daily work, will markedly be reduced under a preventive care regime. In low-income and many developing countries, reactive care is for a majority of the population not attainable. In these societies, developing preventive care will be the only option for providing health care on a equal basis.

Despite a huge CVD market, that with preventive care will grow further, pharmaceutical companies are struggling due to expiring patents on existing drugs and frequent failures of drug candidates in late phases of clinical trials, the latter causing substantial losses. The last 10 years there have been very few or no blockbuster drugs entering the CVD market. In CGNs and others beliefs, todays most urgent challenge for pharmaceutical companies is to solve their current incapability of selecting reliable drug candidates and biomarkers of the disease status in a any given patient and take these molecules into further evaluation in clinical trials. CGNs technology service is well-suited to meet this challenge.